US Stock Market Wrap-Up: July 1, 2025

The stock market experienced a mixed session recently.

Key Market Indices Performance

Notably, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ascended. This index reached 44,494.94. It gained 0.91%, adding 400.17 points. Many Dow components saw significant surges. This reflected positive sentiment in specific areas.

However, the S&P 500 showed a slight decline. It settled at 6,198.01. This was a modest 0.11% drop. The index faced considerable volatility. It failed to break the 6,200 mark. This followed its previous day’s record high.

The Nasdaq Composite recorded a larger fall. It decreased by 0.82%. The index closed at 20,202.89. Nasdaq’s decline was the most significant. This suggests profit-taking after its strong rally. Investors cashed in recent gains.

In contrast, the Russell 2000 performed well. It rose by 1.03%. The index reached 2,197.54. This indicates strength in smaller cap stocks. These stocks were less overheated previously. They now see increased investor interest.

Market volatility, measured by the VIX, stabilized. The VIX fell to 16.65. This was a 0.48% decrease. It marked its lowest point this year. This reflects a reduced fear factor among investors. It signals greater market calm.

Key Economic Catalysts and Their Market Impact

Several crucial economic factors influenced trading. These included legislative actions and data releases. Central bank commentary also played a vital role. Understanding these elements is key. They shape current market trends.

1. Trump’s Tax Bill Clears Senate Hurdle:

A major event was Trump’s tax bill. It successfully passed the Senate. The vote was 51-50. Vice President Vance cast the tie-breaking vote. This significant legislation moved forward.

The bill proposes substantial tax relief. It offers 3.3 trillion dollars in cuts. Combined with prior cuts, it totals 4.5 trillion dollars. This aims to boost economic activity. It could inject liquidity into the system.

Its passage through the House is uncertain. Yet, many anticipate its approval there. Trump is expected to sign it soon. This could happen before Independence Day. The bill’s implications are far-reaching.

However, concerns about national debt emerged. The bill might increase government borrowing. This could elevate bond yields. It might also impact government credit ratings. Financial markets reacted to these possibilities.

The legislation includes program cuts. Medicaid benefits could be reduced. Social safety net programs face elimination. These measures aim to offset costs. They also reflect policy shifts.

Crucially, the bill affects clean energy. It eliminates electric vehicle credits. Solar energy subsidies are also removed. This directly impacts green industries. They may face new financial challenges.

2. Latest Economic Data Releases:

Recent economic reports provided insights. They painted a picture of the labor market. Manufacturing sector health was also highlighted. These figures often guide investor decisions.

The JOLTS job openings report surprised. It showed 7.76 million openings. This exceeded forecasts of 7.30 million. The robust number signals a strong labor market. It implies ongoing demand for workers.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI also improved. It reached 49, surpassing 48.8 estimates. While still below 50 (contractionary), the reading was positive. It suggests the manufacturing sector is recovering. No signs of recession are apparent.

Inflationary pressures showed a slight uptick. The overall price index rose. It moved from 69.4 to 69.7. This small increase could influence policy. It might encourage higher interest rates.

3. Federal Reserve’s Powell’s Commentary:

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke. He participated in a panel in Portugal. His remarks offered guidance on monetary policy. Investors closely analyzed his statements.

Powell indicated caution on interest rates. He suggested observing conditions further. Rate cuts require more evaluation. This stance implies a patient approach. It contrasts with eager market expectations.

He highlighted a healthy labor market. He also affirmed strong U.S. economic performance. Powell stated no current stagflation risk. These remarks are generally positive for the economy.

However, they temper rate cut expectations. The Fed can take its time. This might delay future rate reductions. Markets reacted to this less aggressive outlook.

Consequently, September rate cut probabilities decreased. The likelihood of a 4-4.2% cut fell. It now stands at 72.8%. Similarly, three cuts by December appear less likely. The chance for 3.5-3.75% cuts dropped to 45.4%.

Still, two or three rate cuts are expected. This broad expectation remains intact. The timing, however, is now more uncertain. This reflects the Fed’s flexible stance.

4. Trump’s Stance on Reciprocal Tariff Waivers:

Another key development involved trade policy. Trump declared an end to tariff waivers. The 90-day reciprocal tariff waiver expires. He will not extend it past July 9. This signals a tougher trade approach.

He also voiced pessimism about Japan talks. Negotiations with Japan seem challenging. These statements create trade uncertainty. They could impact global trade relations.

As a result, bond yields generally increased. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.25%. It moved up 4 basis points. The 2-year yield climbed to 3.78%. This was an increase of 6 basis points. Higher yields mean lower bond prices.

The U.S. dollar, however, weakened. The dollar index fell to 96.37. This was a 0.13% decrease. Both U.S. bonds and the dollar declined. Defensive value stocks saw gains. They offered some market protection.

Sectoral Performance and Company Highlights

The market saw varied performance across sectors. While some segments thrived, others faced headwinds. This reflected specific industry trends and news. Individual company updates also drove movements.

Overall, 4,109 stocks rose. This suggests broad market participation. However, major index declines were observed. This is because large-cap stocks fell significantly. Value stocks and mid-to-small caps performed well.

Technology Sector:

• Apple continued its upward trend. It showed sustained investor confidence.
• Amazon experienced a slight rebound. News of its advanced robotics was positive. It plans extensive robot use in logistics. Amazon has over 300 fulfillment centers. 75% of logistics use robots. This is a significant operational shift.
• Microsoft declined by 0.92%. Profit-taking might have played a role.
• NVIDIA fell by almost 3%. Despite its strong performance, some correction occurred. OpenAI confirmed using NVIDIA chips. They have no plans for Google Tensor chips.
• AMD saw a 4% decrease. It followed broader semiconductor trends.
• Broadcom also experienced a decline.
• Tesla dropped sharply, by 4.47%. It closed near the $300 mark. The stock briefly dipped into the $200s today. This was likely due to the tax bill. The bill eliminated EV tax credits.
  • Additionally, a political spat unfolded. Elon Musk opposed Trump’s “Beautiful Bill.” Musk warned of “debt slavery” for Americans. He threatened to form a new political party.
  • Trump retaliated, threatening Tesla subsidies. He even suggested investigating Musk’s citizenship. This political drama weighed on the stock.
  • Tesla maintained its 200-day moving average. Its trading volume was enormous. Over 140 million shares traded hands. Short sellers were active. Despite pressure, $300 held firm.
  • China’s Tesla registrations were around 20,700. This boosted June’s final week sales. Upcoming vehicle delivery numbers are crucial. Institutions expect 385,086 deliveries. Troy Teslike predicts 356,000 deliveries. Over 360,000 seems likely now.
  • Tesla’s identity is evolving. It’s not just an auto company. It includes robo-taxis and energy. The subsidy loss impacts its energy ventures.
• Meta declined by 2.48%.
• Google also fell. OpenAI’s decision not to use its chips likely contributed.
• Netflix saw a slight dip.
• Big Tech Market Caps: NVIDIA remains strong at $3.7 trillion. Microsoft is at $3.65 trillion. Apple finally rose to $3.1 trillion. Amazon and Google maintained $2 trillion club status. Meta, Broadcom, and TSMC follow. Tesla, however, exited the $1 trillion club. It now ranks 11th.

Value and Defensive Stocks:

• Banking stocks performed well. Visa, Mastercard, and JPMorgan rose. Regulatory easing provided support.
• Pharmaceuticals also saw gains. Merck climbed over 3%. UNH soared by nearly 4.59%. UNH reached a record high stock price. This was due to a new agreement. UNH partnered with Sloan Kettering Cancer Center. They aim to improve patient insurance benefits. Johnson & Johnson and Novo also rose.
• Consumer/Retail: Shopping stocks surged, especially Dow components. Crocs jumped 5.78%. Macy’s soared 5.75%. Tariff issues might resolve. A strong economy supports consumer spending. Government stimulus could boost purchases. Independence Day shopping also contributes. Nike rose 3% to $245. Lululemon also gained. McDonald’s, Domino’s Pizza, Walmart, P&G, and PepsiCo performed well. Verizon also saw gains.

Energy Sector:

• Oil prices increased. Brent crude rose to $67 (0.97%). WTI climbed to $63.49 (1.27%). This boosted refining stocks.
• Solar companies like Sunrun (10% up) and PG (3% rebound) gained. This was due to the tax bill. It eliminated direct taxes on solar/wind. However, subsidies were also removed.

Automotive Sector:

• Ford and GM surged 4-5%. This reflected a strong economy. Robust job numbers support auto demand.
• Electric Vehicle stocks faced pressure. Lucid dropped 3.79%. Tesla fell 5.34%. Rivian lost 1.97%. The tax bill’s EV credit removal was a key factor. Ford’s stock rose after it announced reduced EV sales.

Aviation/Travel Sector:

• Airline stocks, like Delta, rose. Travel companies, including Airbnb, performed well. The summer travel season is driving demand.

Semiconductor Sector:

• The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index declined 0.45%. The SMH ETF dropped 1.09%. This indicated broad profit-taking.

New Listings and M&A:

• Figma plans an NYSE listing. This follows its failed merger with Adobe. Recent listings like CoreWeave and Circle performed well. Figma is a software company. Its IPO is highly anticipated.

Adobe stock was impacted. Its failed acquisition of Figma remains notable.

Additional Market Indicators

The Fear & Greed Index remained at 66. This signals a “Greed” sentiment in the market. Sector rotation supported this. Shopping and food stocks saw significant gains. This pushed the index into a greedy zone.

The market continues to react to complex factors. These include fiscal policy changes. Economic data releases are also critical. Central bank guidance remains paramount. Geopolitical tensions add another layer. Investors must remain agile. They need to adapt to evolving conditions.

 

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.