Market Performance
The U.S. stock markets concluded trading on July 21 with varied results, setting the stage for today’s early trends.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 44,323.07, down 19.12 points (0.043%) from its previous close of 44,342.19, indicating a slight decline. Intraday, it reached a high of 44,601.85 and a low of 44,311.42, reflecting volatility throughout the session.
- The S&P 500 ended at 6,305.60, up 8.81 points (0.14%) from 6,296.79, nearing its recent record high of 6,336.08.
- The Nasdaq Composite closed at 20,974.17, up 78.52 points (0.38%) from 20,895.66, also approaching its 52-week high of 21,077.37. These figures contrast with earlier claims of a 0.54% gain for the S&P 500 and a 0.74% gain for the Nasdaq, suggesting the rally may have moderated by the close.
- The Russell 2000, tracking small-cap stocks, closed at 2,231.13 on July 21, down 8.87 points (0.40%) from 2,240.01, with an intraday high of 2,259.22 and a low of 2,230.02. This decline contradicts the previously reported 1.32% gain, indicating a reversal in small-cap momentum late in the session.
- The VIX, a key market fear gauge, closed at 16.65 on July 21, up 0.24 points (1.46%) from 16.41, with an intraday high of 16.99 and a low of 16.30. This slight increase contrasts with the reported 3.09% drop to 16.63, suggesting a minor uptick in investor anxiety.
- RSI readings above 70 for some stocks remain a concern, hinting at potential overbought conditions.
Federal Reserve and Interest Rates
Concerns about Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s position have eased, with Trump denying dismissal plans on July 16, stabilizing markets. Fed officials remain divided: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly hints at two potential rate cuts in 2025, while Governor Adriana Kugler advocates sustained rates. This divergence is reflected in bond yields: the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.5% (up 0.03%), the 2-year at 3.91% (up 3 basis points), and the 30-year at 5% (steady). The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.27% to 98.33, supported by trade and tariff issues. WTI crude oil increased 1.50% to $69 per barrel. The probability of a September rate cut dropped to 52.7% (from 64% on July 18), with a 41.6% chance of two cuts by December, per market expectations ahead of the September 17 FOMC meeting.
Corporate Earnings and Sector Performance
Strong corporate earnings bolstered market sentiment. PepsiCo reported robust quarterly results, with a 7.5% stock jump on July 17 due to international sales. TSMC’s net profit soared 60%, lifting semiconductor stocks. Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Johnson & Johnson also posted solid figures, reinforcing optimism. Most sectors performed well, with tech (Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, Google) and financials (Bank of America, Goldman Sachs) gaining. Consumer staples like Procter & Gamble and Coca-Cola rose, supported by PepsiCo’s strength. Pharmaceuticals lagged, consistent with recent trends.
On July 21, 4,309 stocks advanced while 1,977 declined, with two-thirds of the market gaining. Major tech firms saw modest gains, while Tesla and Meta edged higher. Netflix rose slightly before its earnings report, and Coca-Cola announced a dividend.
Automotive Sector and Lucid Group
In the automotive sector, Lucid Group surged 36% on July 21 following a surprise partnership with Uber to deploy 20,000 Lucid Gravity SUVs for robotaxis, boosting related stocks like Nuro. Tesla fell 0.70%, tempering its recent momentum above $320, with a 5-day moving average at $316. Rivian gained 4%, and GM rose, benefiting from stabilizing rates. High short interest (57.38%) continues to drive Nvidia higher through short covering.
Analysis and Outlook
The market’s mixed close on July 21, with gains in large-cap indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq) and declines in the Dow and Russell 2000, reflects selective strength. The VIX’s slight rise suggests lingering caution despite economic resilience. Strong retail sales and earnings support optimism, but tariff concerns and Fed uncertainty temper the outlook. Investors should monitor overbought signals and the FOMC’s September guidance.
This update, based on intraday data through July 21 and adjusted for accuracy, provides a snapshot as markets open on July 22. Further developments may shift these trends, and I can search for real-time updates if needed.