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U.S. Market Wrap-Up: Third Week Analysis, May 2025

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Market Overview The U.S. stock market faced a turbulent week ending May 23, 2025, as investor confidence wavered. Major indices declined, reflecting concerns over U.S. debt, rising interest rates, and trade policy uncertainties. Despite these challenges, strategic asset allocation remained crucial for portfolio resilience. The 4th industrial revolution, driven by AI and quantum computing, continued … Read more

U.S. Market Wrap-Up: May 23, 2025

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  Market Overview Today, the stock market attempted a rebound. However, it gave back gains late in the session. Overall, movements were unstable. Major indices closed flat or slightly down. The market continues to face uncertainty. Major Indices The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 41,859.09. Importantly, it shifted from flat to slightly negative territory. … Read more

米国市場まとめ：2025年5月20日

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2025年5月20日、米国の株式市場は、ムーディーズによる信用格付け引き下げの懸念から一時的に不安定になったものの、安定を取り戻しました。主要株価指数は底堅さを示し、特にダウ平均株価が上昇を牽引しました。以下では、指数の分析、金利、商品、ハイテク株について、明確にするための箇条書きと、流れを良くするためのトランジションワードを組み込んで解説します。 1. 市場概況 ムーディーズの格下げ懸念にもかかわらず、米国の株式市場はパニックのレベルが低く安定しました。その結果、押し目買いと低い取引高は、慎重な楽観を示唆しました。ディフェンシブ株と選択的な買いが、上昇する債券利回りの圧力の影響を和らげました。さらに、市場は格下げのニュースを消化し、それを遅行指標と見なしました。 2. 主要株価指数 主要株価指数は、まちまちながらも安定したパフォーマンスを示しました。 ダウ工業株30種平均：+0.32%、42,792.07で引け S&P 500：+0.09%、5,963.6で引け、5日続伸 ナスダック総合指数：+0.02%、19,215.46で引け ラッセル2000指数：-0.42%、2,100.18で引け VIX（ボラティリティ指数）：+5%、18.14で引け  3. 主要な市場トレンドとニュース ムーディーズの格下げは当初ボラティリティを高めましたが、市場は安定しました。加えて、トランプの減税に関する議論と地政学的な対話がセンチメントに影響を与えました。さらに、専門家の警告とビッグテックの楽観が、主要な市場トレンドを形成しました。 3.1 減税延長に関する議論 2017年のトランプ減税が失効を迎える中、議会で議論が進行中 共和党内の意見の相違により、7月4日を目標とする法案通過が遅延 クリーンエネルギー税額控除の撤廃が関連銘柄に影響 マイク・ジョンソン下院議長はメモリアルデーまでの解決を目指す 3.2 地政学的動向 トランプ・プーチン間の2時間の電話会談で、ロシア・ウクライナ停戦協議が進展 ゼレンスキー大統領はロシアの銀行とエネルギーに対する制裁を要請 トランプの150カ国に対する関税賦課の脅威が貿易摩擦を高める 中国の姿勢により、世界貿易交渉が遅れる可能性 3.3 専門家の見解 ジェイミー・ダイモン（JPモルガン）：過小評価されている信用市場のリスクに警鐘 ゴールドマン・サックス：ビッグテックがS&P 500の収益を牽引 マイケル・ウィルソン（モルガン・スタンレー）：押し目買いを推奨 RBキャピタル：S&P 500の収益は下方修正の可能性 4. 金利と債券市場 利回り上昇が株式に圧力をかけましたが、押し目買いが市場を安定させました。 10年物米国債利回り：+1bp、4.449％、日中高値4.57％ 30年物米国債利回り：5％に達した後、4.92％で落ち着く 2年物米国債利回り：3.97％に低下、債券価格を押し上げる 景気先行指数：-1％、景気減速を示唆 FRBの見通し：9月まで利下げなし、12月までに4-4.25％となる確率は51.2％ 5. 商品市場 商品市場はまちまちなパフォーマンスを示しました。 金：+1.47％、3,243ドル/オンス、株式とは異なる動き WTI原油：+0.3％、62.68ドル/バレル 米ドル指数：-0.73％、100.35 暗号資産： ビットコイン：+1.47％、105,000ドル イーサリアム：+1.47％、2,500ドル ソラナ：-3％ リップル：-1％ … Read more

U.S. Market Wrap-Up: May 20, 2025

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The U.S. stock market stabilized on May 20, 2025, despite early volatility from Moody’s credit downgrade concerns. Major indices showed resilience, with the Dow leading gains. Below, we analyze indices, interest rates, commodities, and tech stocks, incorporating bullet points for clarity and transitions for flow. 1. Market Overview Despite Moody’s downgrade fears, the U.S. stock … Read more

U.S. Market Wrap-Up: May 15, 2025

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U.S. Market Wrap-Up: May 15, 2025 1. Market Overview Today, U.S. stock markets showed a mixed performance. While the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices recorded gains, the Nasdaq Composite saw a slight decline. The market did not lose its upward trend entirely but the momentum was not very strong, particularly for technology stocks. A … Read more

U.S. Market Wrap-Up: May 14, 2025

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U.S. Market Wrap-Up: May 14, 2025  1. Market Overview Today, U.S. stock markets once again showed a mixed performance, following a similar pattern to yesterday. While the Dow Jones and Russell 2000 indices declined, the S&P 500 edged up slightly, and the Nasdaq continued its upward trend driven by strong technology stocks. In the absence … Read more

U.S. Market Wrap-Up: May 13, 2025

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U.S. Market Wrap-Up: May 13, 2025 U.S. stock markets presented a mixed picture on Tuesday. A strong rally in technology stocks, fueled by optimism surrounding President Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia and significant investment agreements, propelled the Nasdaq and S&P 500 higher. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined, heavily impacted by an unprecedented plunge … Read more

U.S. Market and Economic Update: April 30, 2025

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U.S. Market and Economic Update: May 1, 2025
  1. Stock Market Overview
  • Major Indices:
    • Dow Jones: Up 0.35%, closing at 4,667.64 (+140 points). Seventh consecutive day of gains.
    • S&P 500: Up 0.14%, closing at 5,568.96 (+2.39% from daily low).
    • Nasdaq: Up 0.08%, closing at 17,446.34 (+2.78% from daily low).
    • Russell 2000: Down 0.90%, closing at 1,958.79 (+1.71% from daily low).
  • Volatility Index (VIX): Peaked at 28 early, closed at 25.23 (-10% from high), signaling reduced fear.
  • Market Dynamics: Early sell-off triggered by GDP contraction (-0.3%) and tariff uncertainties. Late recovery driven by strong consumer data, stable inflation, anticipated Fed rate cuts, and robust Big Tech earnings (Microsoft, Meta). Approximately 2,708 stocks rose, 3,522 fell, reflecting balanced but optimistic sentiment.
  1. Economic Indicators
  • GDP: Contracted by 0.3%, first negative growth since Q1 2022 (reported March 31, 2022).
    • Causes: Import surge (trade deficit +41.3%) due to pre-tariff stockpiling, government spending down 1.4%.
    • Analysis: Excluding imports, real GDP estimated at ~3% growth.
    • Trump Administration: Attributes downturn to Biden’s legacy, claims tariff benefits pending.
  • Consumer Metrics:
    • Personal Income: Expected 0.4%, actual 0.5% increase.
    • Personal Consumption: Expected 0.5%, actual 0.7% increase.
  • Inflation: Core PCE flat (below 0.5% forecast, <0.1% rise). Year-over-year core inflation at 2.6%, supporting disinflation.
  • Employment: ADP private payrolls at 62,000 (half of March levels), with declines in education and healthcare.
  • Fed Rate Cut Expectations:
    • June (4–4.25%): 63.7% probability.
    • July (3.75–4%): 57% probability.
    • September (3.75%): 54.5% probability.
    • October (3.25–3.5%): 41.9% probability.
    • Weak GDP boosts rate cut odds, fueling market optimism.
  1. Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities
  • Bonds:
    • 10-Year Treasury Yield: Down 2 basis points to 4.14%.
    • 2-Year Yield: Down 6 basis points to 3.5% (-1.67%).
    • Safe-haven demand rose amid economic uncertainty.
  • Dollar Index: Up 0.42%, closing at 99.43.
  • Commodities:
    • Crude Oil (Brent): Down 3.73%, at $60.90 per barrel.
    • Gold: Down 0.89%, at $3,304 per ounce.
    • Tariff and recession fears drove safe-haven flows to bonds and dollars.
  • Cryptocurrencies:
    • Bitcoin: Down 1%, at $94,000.
    • Ethereum: Down 2%.
  1. Sector and Stock Performance
  • Big Tech:
    • Microsoft: Up 5.49% after hours. EPS $3.46 (+$0.24 vs. consensus), revenue $700B (+$16B). Cloud ($268B, +21%), productivity ($299B, +10%) outperformed. Adjusted Open AI partnership to reduce supply obligations.
    • Meta: Up 4.59% after hours. EPS $6.43 (+$1.21), revenue $423B (+$9.5B). DAU 3.43B (+6%), ad revenue +10%. Q2 guidance $425–455B, capex $640–720B.
    • Qualcomm: Down 5% after hours. Revenue +15%, EPS $2.85, but guidance ($99–107B) missed consensus.
    • Apple: Up 0.56%, earnings due May 2. Analyst (Tim Long, Barclays) warns of H2 demand slowdown.
    • Amazon: Down 1.58%, earnings due May 2.
    • Tesla: Down 3.38%, recovered 3.79% from low ($270). RSI 58, held 5/15/50-day MAs ($278/264). Short interest down to 49.45%.
    • Nvidia: Flat, held 50-day MA ($108). CEO Jensen Huang: China’s AI “right behind” U.S., praises Huawei’s progress.
    • Alphabet: Antitrust lawsuit ongoing, CEO Sundar Pichai testifies. Negotiating Gemini AI integration with Apple.
  • Defensive Stocks: Visa (+1%), Mastercard, pharma (Novo Nordisk), telecom (AT&T, +2%), Booking Holdings (strong earnings) outperformed.
  • Healthcare: Humana (+1%, lower medical costs), GE Healthcare (+3%, lowered guidance).
  • Energy: Weak due to oil price drop.
  • Solar: First Solar down 8%, tariff headwinds.
  • Starbucks: Down 5.68%, weak earnings despite new CEO Brian Niccol.
  • Robinhood: Down 3% after hours, rising costs ($2.185B).
  • Nike: Wells Fargo bearish, $70/share valuation.
  • Caterpillar: Q1 revenue $14.05B (below expectations), global sales down.
  • Automakers: Ford (-1.38%), Lucid (-1.95%), Toyota (-2%). Tariffs may add $10,000 per vehicle.
  • Snap: Down 12%, ad revenue outlook weak, Wall Street cuts price targets.
  • Semiconductors: TSMC, ON Semiconductor, ARM, Broadcom (+0.68%) rebounded. SMCI down 13.5% (weak Q3).
  1. Tesla Highlights
  • Decline Drivers: GDP contraction, tariff uncertainty, weak auto sector. Tariffs may favor Ford, GM, Stellantis.
  • Positive Developments:
    • Cybertruck Rear-Wheel Drive ($6,900) set for mass production at Giga Texas.
    • Cybercab platform installed, capable of 300 units.
    • Humanoid Robot (Optimus): Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas forecasts 1B units sold by 2050, $5T market.
    • Elon Musk completes DOGE role (cut $160B in government spending), praised by Trump, set to focus on Tesla.
  1. Trump Administration and Policy
  • GDP Stance: Blames Biden, claims tariff benefits pending. Predicts “boom” once “Biden’s traces” erased.
  • Tariff Policy:
    • Downplays inflation fears, claims shelves won’t empty. China negotiations ongoing.
    • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: $250M in corporate investments secured, pharma returning to U.S.
    • USTR Jamie Singla, Peter Navarro: India tariff talks nearing conclusion.
    • Ukraine-Hitachi deal near finalization (Bloomberg).
  • Cabinet Meeting: Musk’s DOGE role saved $160B, Trump encourages Tesla focus.
  • Regulatory Outlook: Nvidia CEO urges AI export rule relaxation.
  1. Wall Street and Expert Insights
  • Morgan Stanley: Warns of stagflation risks.
  • Wells Fargo: Sees robust demand but limited recovery potential.
  • Bloomberg Economics: GDP hit by pre-tariff orders, Q2 recovery unlikely.
  • Democrats (Chuck Schumer): Criticize Trump’s policy failures, demand team overhaul.
  1. Other Developments
  • Waymo-Toyota: Partnering on autonomous vehicles.
  • Upcoming: Apple, Amazon earnings (May 2), Manufacturing PMI.

Conclusion: Markets overcame a GDP-driven sell-off (-0.3%) with strong consumer spending, stable inflation, Fed rate cut hopes, and stellar Big Tech earnings (Microsoft, Meta). Tesla and autos faced tariff pressures but held technical levels, with Cybertruck and Optimus as growth catalysts. Trump deflects economic blame to Biden, touting tariffs and investments. Markets remain resilient, eyeing further earnings and Fed moves.

 

Market Update: April 30, 2025

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Market Update: April 30, 2025

Major Indices

  • Dow Jones: 4,527.62, +0.75%. Supported by broad strength despite UnitedHealth‘s underperformance.
  • S&P 500: 5,560.73–5,560.83, +0.58%. Broke out of correction territory after morning volatility, bolstered by Howard Lutnick‘s remarks. -9.5% from highs.
  • Nasdaq: 17,460.61–17,461.32, +0.5%. Recovered April losses, -12.94% from highs.
  • Russell 2000: 1,975.37, +0.50–0.59%.
  • VIX (Volatility Index): 24.17–24.39, -3.02% to -3.9%. Dropped to low 20s, signaling reduced fear.  

 

Asset Prices

  • Gold: 3,331.2 troy oz, -0.49%.
  • Oil: $60.21/barrel, -2.97%.
  • 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.16–4.174%, -4 to -4.2bp. Rate cut expectations strengthen.
  • Dollar Index: 99.02–99.21, +0.21–0.24%. Resilient after initial weakness.
  • Cryptocurrencies:
    • Bitcoin: $94,000s, +0.23%.
    • Ethereum: $1,800, +1.21%.
    • Ripple: Flat. Solana and others show minimal movement.

Market Dynamics

  • Overview: Cautious morning trading turned bullish in the afternoon, driven by Trump administration policies and FOMO buying. Markets await key earnings.
  • Trump Administration Policies:
    • Howard Lutnick (Commerce Secretary): Announced auto tariff relief (3.75%→2.5%→0% for vehicles with 85%+ U.S. parts). Steel/aluminum double tariffs waived.
    • Scott Bessent (Treasury Secretary): Optimistic on China talks, tariffs to fund income tax cuts. Negotiations with 18 countries, with India, Korea, and Japan advancing fastest.
    • Caroline Leavitt (Spokesperson): China faces tariff burdens, details undisclosed. Auto tariff adjustments to be signed as executive order.
    • Supply chain: Retail inventory management mitigates concerns. Pharma tax credits under review.
    • Amazon controversy: Tariff-driven price hikes reported by Punchbowl News, criticized by White House. Trump–Jeff Bezos call led to retraction. Goldman Sachs’ Eric Sheridan estimates up to 12% operating profit hit ($10B+). Stock -0.17%.
  • Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon: Market stabilization comments boosted sentiment.
  • Federal Reserve: Rate cut odds rise (June: 60.2%, July: 57.8%, October: 42.1%, December: 40.1%). Focus on inflation/financial stability, weekly briefings.

Economic Indicators

  • JOLTS Report (March): 7.192M job openings, third consecutive decline. Nonfarm payrolls expected to add 130K jobs, signaling labor market cooling and rate cut potential.
  • Conference Board Consumer Confidence (April): 86, down 7.9 points from 93.9. Limited market impact due to expectations.
  • Upcoming: Q1 GDP (preliminary), PCE inflation, nonfarm payrolls/unemployment (Friday).

Sectors and Stocks

  • Big Tech:
    • Tesla: +2–2.15% ($292–293), sixth consecutive gain. Tariff exemptions (Model Y/3 85%+ U.S. sourcing), Semi Truck 2025 production (50K units), China sales (+300 units in April), autonomous driving safety (1 crash per 7.5M miles, 10x safer than humans), Ark Invest’s robotaxi outlook (100K units). Robyn Denholm sold $32M, Joe Gebbia bought $1M. RSI at 60, 1.1B shares traded.
    • Meta: +0.85–1%, launched AI Llama app, targeting 1B users.
    • Nvidia: +0.27%, gains on relaxed AI chip export rules.
    • Apple: +0.5%, U.S. iPhone production news.
    • Palantir: +1%.
    • Amazon: Shaky due to tariff concerns, -0.17%.
  • Pharma:
    • Pfizer: +3.65%, cost-cutting focus. CEO Albert Bourla flags $150M tariff costs, investments on hold.
    • Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly: Wegovy discounts, Humacyte partnership, +4.09%.
    • Humacyte: +23% (peaked at +40% intraday).
  • Consumer:
    • Coca-Cola: Resilient to tariffs, $11.22B revenue, +73% EPS. Diversified supply chain, RBC Capital praises fundamentals.
    • Starbucks: Earnings miss (41¢ EPS, $8.76B revenue), North America sales weak, -0.41–1.14%.
    • Netflix: +20% in a month, strong V-shaped recovery.
    • Spotify: 268M→273M subscribers, tax-driven earnings miss, -6%.
  • Autos:
    • GM: Solid earnings but guidance withdrawn, conference call delayed, -0.64%. CEO Mary Barra sees tariff relief benefits.
    • Ford: +1.3%, Lucid: +1.7%, Stellantis: Tariff relief upside.
  • Semiconductors:
    • Intel: 14A process testing, -0.83%.
    • Super Micro Computer: Lowered guidance ($5–6B), -16%.
    • Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, TSMC: Flat to slight gains, export rule relief expected.
  • Payments:
    • Visa: +9% revenue, +10% EPS, strong cross-border volume, +1.17%.
    • PayPal: Post-earnings gains.
  • Banks: Goldman Sachs CEO’s deregulation comments lift sector.
  • Others:
    • UPS: 20K layoffs due to tariffs, Amazon dependency.
    • Electrolux, Kraft Heinz: Adjusted guidance.

Technical Analysis

  • Tesla: Broke 50/200-day moving averages, RSI 60, nearing overbought. $287 resistance cleared, targeting $292–293.
  • S&P 500: Above 5,500, potential for 5,800.
  • BofA Greed Index: 36→38, moving away from extreme fear.

Outlook

  • Tomorrow’s Events: Q1 GDP (preliminary), PCE inflation, earnings from Caterpillar, Microsoft, Meta, Qualcomm, Robinhood.
  • Market: Tariff relief, rate cut expectations, and earnings digestion support upside. Focus on India, Korea, Japan trade talks and supply chain stability.
  • Risks: Tariff pressures on Amazon, UPS; uncertainty in GM guidance.

Note: Trump policies and earnings dominate market momentum. Monitor rate cut signals and tariff developments for volatility.