U.S. Market and Economic Update: April 30, 2025

by
U.S. Market and Economic Update: May 1, 2025
  1. Stock Market Overview
  • Major Indices:
    • Dow Jones: Up 0.35%, closing at 4,667.64 (+140 points). Seventh consecutive day of gains.
    • S&P 500: Up 0.14%, closing at 5,568.96 (+2.39% from daily low).
    • Nasdaq: Up 0.08%, closing at 17,446.34 (+2.78% from daily low).
    • Russell 2000: Down 0.90%, closing at 1,958.79 (+1.71% from daily low).
  • Volatility Index (VIX): Peaked at 28 early, closed at 25.23 (-10% from high), signaling reduced fear.
  • Market Dynamics: Early sell-off triggered by GDP contraction (-0.3%) and tariff uncertainties. Late recovery driven by strong consumer data, stable inflation, anticipated Fed rate cuts, and robust Big Tech earnings (Microsoft, Meta). Approximately 2,708 stocks rose, 3,522 fell, reflecting balanced but optimistic sentiment.
  1. Economic Indicators
  • GDP: Contracted by 0.3%, first negative growth since Q1 2022 (reported March 31, 2022).
    • Causes: Import surge (trade deficit +41.3%) due to pre-tariff stockpiling, government spending down 1.4%.
    • Analysis: Excluding imports, real GDP estimated at ~3% growth.
    • Trump Administration: Attributes downturn to Biden’s legacy, claims tariff benefits pending.
  • Consumer Metrics:
    • Personal Income: Expected 0.4%, actual 0.5% increase.
    • Personal Consumption: Expected 0.5%, actual 0.7% increase.
  • Inflation: Core PCE flat (below 0.5% forecast, <0.1% rise). Year-over-year core inflation at 2.6%, supporting disinflation.
  • Employment: ADP private payrolls at 62,000 (half of March levels), with declines in education and healthcare.
  • Fed Rate Cut Expectations:
    • June (4–4.25%): 63.7% probability.
    • July (3.75–4%): 57% probability.
    • September (3.75%): 54.5% probability.
    • October (3.25–3.5%): 41.9% probability.
    • Weak GDP boosts rate cut odds, fueling market optimism.
  1. Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities
  • Bonds:
    • 10-Year Treasury Yield: Down 2 basis points to 4.14%.
    • 2-Year Yield: Down 6 basis points to 3.5% (-1.67%).
    • Safe-haven demand rose amid economic uncertainty.
  • Dollar Index: Up 0.42%, closing at 99.43.
  • Commodities:
    • Crude Oil (Brent): Down 3.73%, at $60.90 per barrel.
    • Gold: Down 0.89%, at $3,304 per ounce.
    • Tariff and recession fears drove safe-haven flows to bonds and dollars.
  • Cryptocurrencies:
    • Bitcoin: Down 1%, at $94,000.
    • Ethereum: Down 2%.
  1. Sector and Stock Performance
  • Big Tech:
    • Microsoft: Up 5.49% after hours. EPS $3.46 (+$0.24 vs. consensus), revenue $700B (+$16B). Cloud ($268B, +21%), productivity ($299B, +10%) outperformed. Adjusted Open AI partnership to reduce supply obligations.
    • Meta: Up 4.59% after hours. EPS $6.43 (+$1.21), revenue $423B (+$9.5B). DAU 3.43B (+6%), ad revenue +10%. Q2 guidance $425–455B, capex $640–720B.
    • Qualcomm: Down 5% after hours. Revenue +15%, EPS $2.85, but guidance ($99–107B) missed consensus.
    • Apple: Up 0.56%, earnings due May 2. Analyst (Tim Long, Barclays) warns of H2 demand slowdown.
    • Amazon: Down 1.58%, earnings due May 2.
    • Tesla: Down 3.38%, recovered 3.79% from low ($270). RSI 58, held 5/15/50-day MAs ($278/264). Short interest down to 49.45%.
    • Nvidia: Flat, held 50-day MA ($108). CEO Jensen Huang: China’s AI “right behind” U.S., praises Huawei’s progress.
    • Alphabet: Antitrust lawsuit ongoing, CEO Sundar Pichai testifies. Negotiating Gemini AI integration with Apple.
  • Defensive Stocks: Visa (+1%), Mastercard, pharma (Novo Nordisk), telecom (AT&T, +2%), Booking Holdings (strong earnings) outperformed.
  • Healthcare: Humana (+1%, lower medical costs), GE Healthcare (+3%, lowered guidance).
  • Energy: Weak due to oil price drop.
  • Solar: First Solar down 8%, tariff headwinds.
  • Starbucks: Down 5.68%, weak earnings despite new CEO Brian Niccol.
  • Robinhood: Down 3% after hours, rising costs ($2.185B).
  • Nike: Wells Fargo bearish, $70/share valuation.
  • Caterpillar: Q1 revenue $14.05B (below expectations), global sales down.
  • Automakers: Ford (-1.38%), Lucid (-1.95%), Toyota (-2%). Tariffs may add $10,000 per vehicle.
  • Snap: Down 12%, ad revenue outlook weak, Wall Street cuts price targets.
  • Semiconductors: TSMC, ON Semiconductor, ARM, Broadcom (+0.68%) rebounded. SMCI down 13.5% (weak Q3).
  1. Tesla Highlights
  • Decline Drivers: GDP contraction, tariff uncertainty, weak auto sector. Tariffs may favor Ford, GM, Stellantis.
  • Positive Developments:
    • Cybertruck Rear-Wheel Drive ($6,900) set for mass production at Giga Texas.
    • Cybercab platform installed, capable of 300 units.
    • Humanoid Robot (Optimus): Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas forecasts 1B units sold by 2050, $5T market.
    • Elon Musk completes DOGE role (cut $160B in government spending), praised by Trump, set to focus on Tesla.
  1. Trump Administration and Policy
  • GDP Stance: Blames Biden, claims tariff benefits pending. Predicts “boom” once “Biden’s traces” erased.
  • Tariff Policy:
    • Downplays inflation fears, claims shelves won’t empty. China negotiations ongoing.
    • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: $250M in corporate investments secured, pharma returning to U.S.
    • USTR Jamie Singla, Peter Navarro: India tariff talks nearing conclusion.
    • Ukraine-Hitachi deal near finalization (Bloomberg).
  • Cabinet Meeting: Musk’s DOGE role saved $160B, Trump encourages Tesla focus.
  • Regulatory Outlook: Nvidia CEO urges AI export rule relaxation.
  1. Wall Street and Expert Insights
  • Morgan Stanley: Warns of stagflation risks.
  • Wells Fargo: Sees robust demand but limited recovery potential.
  • Bloomberg Economics: GDP hit by pre-tariff orders, Q2 recovery unlikely.
  • Democrats (Chuck Schumer): Criticize Trump’s policy failures, demand team overhaul.
  1. Other Developments
  • Waymo-Toyota: Partnering on autonomous vehicles.
  • Upcoming: Apple, Amazon earnings (May 2), Manufacturing PMI.

Conclusion: Markets overcame a GDP-driven sell-off (-0.3%) with strong consumer spending, stable inflation, Fed rate cut hopes, and stellar Big Tech earnings (Microsoft, Meta). Tesla and autos faced tariff pressures but held technical levels, with Cybertruck and Optimus as growth catalysts. Trump deflects economic blame to Biden, touting tariffs and investments. Markets remain resilient, eyeing further earnings and Fed moves.

 

Market Update: April 30, 2025

by

Market Update: April 30, 2025

Major Indices

  • Dow Jones: 4,527.62, +0.75%. Supported by broad strength despite UnitedHealth‘s underperformance.
  • S&P 500: 5,560.73–5,560.83, +0.58%. Broke out of correction territory after morning volatility, bolstered by Howard Lutnick‘s remarks. -9.5% from highs.
  • Nasdaq: 17,460.61–17,461.32, +0.5%. Recovered April losses, -12.94% from highs.
  • Russell 2000: 1,975.37, +0.50–0.59%.
  • VIX (Volatility Index): 24.17–24.39, -3.02% to -3.9%. Dropped to low 20s, signaling reduced fear.  

 

Asset Prices

  • Gold: 3,331.2 troy oz, -0.49%.
  • Oil: $60.21/barrel, -2.97%.
  • 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.16–4.174%, -4 to -4.2bp. Rate cut expectations strengthen.
  • Dollar Index: 99.02–99.21, +0.21–0.24%. Resilient after initial weakness.
  • Cryptocurrencies:
    • Bitcoin: $94,000s, +0.23%.
    • Ethereum: $1,800, +1.21%.
    • Ripple: Flat. Solana and others show minimal movement.

Market Dynamics

  • Overview: Cautious morning trading turned bullish in the afternoon, driven by Trump administration policies and FOMO buying. Markets await key earnings.
  • Trump Administration Policies:
    • Howard Lutnick (Commerce Secretary): Announced auto tariff relief (3.75%→2.5%→0% for vehicles with 85%+ U.S. parts). Steel/aluminum double tariffs waived.
    • Scott Bessent (Treasury Secretary): Optimistic on China talks, tariffs to fund income tax cuts. Negotiations with 18 countries, with India, Korea, and Japan advancing fastest.
    • Caroline Leavitt (Spokesperson): China faces tariff burdens, details undisclosed. Auto tariff adjustments to be signed as executive order.
    • Supply chain: Retail inventory management mitigates concerns. Pharma tax credits under review.
    • Amazon controversy: Tariff-driven price hikes reported by Punchbowl News, criticized by White House. Trump–Jeff Bezos call led to retraction. Goldman Sachs’ Eric Sheridan estimates up to 12% operating profit hit ($10B+). Stock -0.17%.
  • Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon: Market stabilization comments boosted sentiment.
  • Federal Reserve: Rate cut odds rise (June: 60.2%, July: 57.8%, October: 42.1%, December: 40.1%). Focus on inflation/financial stability, weekly briefings.

Economic Indicators

  • JOLTS Report (March): 7.192M job openings, third consecutive decline. Nonfarm payrolls expected to add 130K jobs, signaling labor market cooling and rate cut potential.
  • Conference Board Consumer Confidence (April): 86, down 7.9 points from 93.9. Limited market impact due to expectations.
  • Upcoming: Q1 GDP (preliminary), PCE inflation, nonfarm payrolls/unemployment (Friday).

Sectors and Stocks

  • Big Tech:
    • Tesla: +2–2.15% ($292–293), sixth consecutive gain. Tariff exemptions (Model Y/3 85%+ U.S. sourcing), Semi Truck 2025 production (50K units), China sales (+300 units in April), autonomous driving safety (1 crash per 7.5M miles, 10x safer than humans), Ark Invest’s robotaxi outlook (100K units). Robyn Denholm sold $32M, Joe Gebbia bought $1M. RSI at 60, 1.1B shares traded.
    • Meta: +0.85–1%, launched AI Llama app, targeting 1B users.
    • Nvidia: +0.27%, gains on relaxed AI chip export rules.
    • Apple: +0.5%, U.S. iPhone production news.
    • Palantir: +1%.
    • Amazon: Shaky due to tariff concerns, -0.17%.
  • Pharma:
    • Pfizer: +3.65%, cost-cutting focus. CEO Albert Bourla flags $150M tariff costs, investments on hold.
    • Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly: Wegovy discounts, Humacyte partnership, +4.09%.
    • Humacyte: +23% (peaked at +40% intraday).
  • Consumer:
    • Coca-Cola: Resilient to tariffs, $11.22B revenue, +73% EPS. Diversified supply chain, RBC Capital praises fundamentals.
    • Starbucks: Earnings miss (41¢ EPS, $8.76B revenue), North America sales weak, -0.41–1.14%.
    • Netflix: +20% in a month, strong V-shaped recovery.
    • Spotify: 268M→273M subscribers, tax-driven earnings miss, -6%.
  • Autos:
    • GM: Solid earnings but guidance withdrawn, conference call delayed, -0.64%. CEO Mary Barra sees tariff relief benefits.
    • Ford: +1.3%, Lucid: +1.7%, Stellantis: Tariff relief upside.
  • Semiconductors:
    • Intel: 14A process testing, -0.83%.
    • Super Micro Computer: Lowered guidance ($5–6B), -16%.
    • Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, TSMC: Flat to slight gains, export rule relief expected.
  • Payments:
    • Visa: +9% revenue, +10% EPS, strong cross-border volume, +1.17%.
    • PayPal: Post-earnings gains.
  • Banks: Goldman Sachs CEO’s deregulation comments lift sector.
  • Others:
    • UPS: 20K layoffs due to tariffs, Amazon dependency.
    • Electrolux, Kraft Heinz: Adjusted guidance.

Technical Analysis

  • Tesla: Broke 50/200-day moving averages, RSI 60, nearing overbought. $287 resistance cleared, targeting $292–293.
  • S&P 500: Above 5,500, potential for 5,800.
  • BofA Greed Index: 36→38, moving away from extreme fear.

Outlook

  • Tomorrow’s Events: Q1 GDP (preliminary), PCE inflation, earnings from Caterpillar, Microsoft, Meta, Qualcomm, Robinhood.
  • Market: Tariff relief, rate cut expectations, and earnings digestion support upside. Focus on India, Korea, Japan trade talks and supply chain stability.
  • Risks: Tariff pressures on Amazon, UPS; uncertainty in GM guidance.

Note: Trump policies and earnings dominate market momentum. Monitor rate cut signals and tariff developments for volatility.

 

Buffett Indicator: When to Buy?

by

Buffett Indicator: How to Identify Stock Market Overvaluation and Undervaluation 📌 What is the Buffett Indicator? The Most Intuitive Metric for Evaluating the Stock Market! When deciding whether the stock market is overvalued or still an attractive investment opportunity, the Buffett Indicator can serve as a useful guide. Named after legendary investor Warren Buffett, this … Read more

FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Stock Market Outlook

by

FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Stock Market Outlook Introduction The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to make its latest interest rate decision, and while a rate freeze is widely expected, the real market-moving events will likely be Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference and the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). Let’s explore the … Read more

Trump Shock and the Global Economy: How Should We View Market Volatility?

by

Trump Shock and the Global Economy : How Should We View Market Volatility? 📢 Introduction Hello, everyone! In this blog post, we will explore the impact of the Trump Shock on global financial markets. With major fluctuations in the U.S. and Japanese markets, we will analyze both short-term volatility and a mid-to-long-term perspective to help … Read more

Semiconductor Market and Samsung Electronics in 2025: Outlook and Investment Insights

by

Semiconductor Market and Samsung Electronics in 2025: Outlook and Investment Insights Welcome to our deep dive into the semiconductor industry and Samsung Electronics as we head into the second half of 2025! With AI technology booming, global trade tensions escalating, and market dynamics shifting, the semiconductor landscape is evolving rapidly. Whether you’re an investor, tech … Read more

S&P 500 vs. Nikkei 225: A Long-Term Investment Perspective

by

S&P 500 vs. Nikkei 225: A Long-Term Investment Perspective Introduction Hello, investors! 🌱 Many investors often wonder which index fund to invest in. Today, instead of discussing the Korean stock market, let’s focus on comparing two major indices: S&P 500 and Nikkei 225. This blog summarizes insights from a discussion between two investment experts who … Read more