Market Update: April 30, 2025

Major Indices

• Dow Jones: 4,527.62, +0.75%. Supported by broad strength despite UnitedHealth‘s underperformance.
• S&P 500: 5,560.73–5,560.83, +0.58%. Broke out of correction territory after morning volatility, bolstered by Howard Lutnick‘s remarks. -9.5% from highs.
• Nasdaq: 17,460.61–17,461.32, +0.5%. Recovered April losses, -12.94% from highs.
• Russell 2000: 1,975.37, +0.50–0.59%.
• VIX (Volatility Index): 24.17–24.39, -3.02% to -3.9%. Dropped to low 20s, signaling reduced fear.  
  

 

Asset Prices

• Gold: 3,331.2 troy oz, -0.49%.
• Oil: $60.21/barrel, -2.97%.
• 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.16–4.174%, -4 to -4.2bp. Rate cut expectations strengthen.
• Dollar Index: 99.02–99.21, +0.21–0.24%. Resilient after initial weakness.
• Cryptocurrencies:
  • Bitcoin: $94,000s, +0.23%.
  • Ethereum: $1,800, +1.21%.
  • Ripple: Flat. Solana and others show minimal movement.

Market Dynamics

• Overview: Cautious morning trading turned bullish in the afternoon, driven by Trump administration policies and FOMO buying. Markets await key earnings.
• Trump Administration Policies:
  • Howard Lutnick (Commerce Secretary): Announced auto tariff relief (3.75%→2.5%→0% for vehicles with 85%+ U.S. parts). Steel/aluminum double tariffs waived.
  • Scott Bessent (Treasury Secretary): Optimistic on China talks, tariffs to fund income tax cuts. Negotiations with 18 countries, with India, Korea, and Japan advancing fastest.
  • Caroline Leavitt (Spokesperson): China faces tariff burdens, details undisclosed. Auto tariff adjustments to be signed as executive order.
  • Supply chain: Retail inventory management mitigates concerns. Pharma tax credits under review.
  • Amazon controversy: Tariff-driven price hikes reported by Punchbowl News, criticized by White House. Trump–Jeff Bezos call led to retraction. Goldman Sachs’ Eric Sheridan estimates up to 12% operating profit hit ($10B+). Stock -0.17%.
• Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon: Market stabilization comments boosted sentiment.
• Federal Reserve: Rate cut odds rise (June: 60.2%, July: 57.8%, October: 42.1%, December: 40.1%). Focus on inflation/financial stability, weekly briefings.

Economic Indicators

• JOLTS Report (March): 7.192M job openings, third consecutive decline. Nonfarm payrolls expected to add 130K jobs, signaling labor market cooling and rate cut potential.
• Conference Board Consumer Confidence (April): 86, down 7.9 points from 93.9. Limited market impact due to expectations.
• Upcoming: Q1 GDP (preliminary), PCE inflation, nonfarm payrolls/unemployment (Friday).

Sectors and Stocks

• Big Tech:
  • Tesla: +2–2.15% ($292–293), sixth consecutive gain. Tariff exemptions (Model Y/3 85%+ U.S. sourcing), Semi Truck 2025 production (50K units), China sales (+300 units in April), autonomous driving safety (1 crash per 7.5M miles, 10x safer than humans), Ark Invest’s robotaxi outlook (100K units). Robyn Denholm sold $32M, Joe Gebbia bought $1M. RSI at 60, 1.1B shares traded.
  • Meta: +0.85–1%, launched AI Llama app, targeting 1B users.
  • Nvidia: +0.27%, gains on relaxed AI chip export rules.
  • Apple: +0.5%, U.S. iPhone production news.
  • Palantir: +1%.
  • Amazon: Shaky due to tariff concerns, -0.17%.
• Pharma:
  • Pfizer: +3.65%, cost-cutting focus. CEO Albert Bourla flags $150M tariff costs, investments on hold.
  • Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly: Wegovy discounts, Humacyte partnership, +4.09%.
  • Humacyte: +23% (peaked at +40% intraday).
• Consumer:
  • Coca-Cola: Resilient to tariffs, $11.22B revenue, +73% EPS. Diversified supply chain, RBC Capital praises fundamentals.
  • Starbucks: Earnings miss (41¢ EPS, $8.76B revenue), North America sales weak, -0.41–1.14%.
  • Netflix: +20% in a month, strong V-shaped recovery.
  • Spotify: 268M→273M subscribers, tax-driven earnings miss, -6%.
• Autos:
  • GM: Solid earnings but guidance withdrawn, conference call delayed, -0.64%. CEO Mary Barra sees tariff relief benefits.
  • Ford: +1.3%, Lucid: +1.7%, Stellantis: Tariff relief upside.
• Semiconductors:
  • Intel: 14A process testing, -0.83%.
  • Super Micro Computer: Lowered guidance ($5–6B), -16%.
  • Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, TSMC: Flat to slight gains, export rule relief expected.
• Payments:
  • Visa: +9% revenue, +10% EPS, strong cross-border volume, +1.17%.
  • PayPal: Post-earnings gains.
• Banks: Goldman Sachs CEO’s deregulation comments lift sector.
• Others:
  • UPS: 20K layoffs due to tariffs, Amazon dependency.
  • Electrolux, Kraft Heinz: Adjusted guidance.

Technical Analysis

• Tesla: Broke 50/200-day moving averages, RSI 60, nearing overbought. $287 resistance cleared, targeting $292–293.
• S&P 500: Above 5,500, potential for 5,800.
• BofA Greed Index: 36→38, moving away from extreme fear.

Outlook

• Tomorrow’s Events: Q1 GDP (preliminary), PCE inflation, earnings from Caterpillar, Microsoft, Meta, Qualcomm, Robinhood.
• Market: Tariff relief, rate cut expectations, and earnings digestion support upside. Focus on India, Korea, Japan trade talks and supply chain stability.
• Risks: Tariff pressures on Amazon, UPS; uncertainty in GM guidance.

Note: Trump policies and earnings dominate market momentum. Monitor rate cut signals and tariff developments for volatility.