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Market Update: April 30, 2025

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Market Update: April 30, 2025

Major Indices

  • Dow Jones: 4,527.62, +0.75%. Supported by broad strength despite UnitedHealth‘s underperformance.
  • S&P 500: 5,560.73–5,560.83, +0.58%. Broke out of correction territory after morning volatility, bolstered by Howard Lutnick‘s remarks. -9.5% from highs.
  • Nasdaq: 17,460.61–17,461.32, +0.5%. Recovered April losses, -12.94% from highs.
  • Russell 2000: 1,975.37, +0.50–0.59%.
  • VIX (Volatility Index): 24.17–24.39, -3.02% to -3.9%. Dropped to low 20s, signaling reduced fear.  

 

Asset Prices

  • Gold: 3,331.2 troy oz, -0.49%.
  • Oil: $60.21/barrel, -2.97%.
  • 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.16–4.174%, -4 to -4.2bp. Rate cut expectations strengthen.
  • Dollar Index: 99.02–99.21, +0.21–0.24%. Resilient after initial weakness.
  • Cryptocurrencies:
    • Bitcoin: $94,000s, +0.23%.
    • Ethereum: $1,800, +1.21%.
    • Ripple: Flat. Solana and others show minimal movement.

Market Dynamics

  • Overview: Cautious morning trading turned bullish in the afternoon, driven by Trump administration policies and FOMO buying. Markets await key earnings.
  • Trump Administration Policies:
    • Howard Lutnick (Commerce Secretary): Announced auto tariff relief (3.75%→2.5%→0% for vehicles with 85%+ U.S. parts). Steel/aluminum double tariffs waived.
    • Scott Bessent (Treasury Secretary): Optimistic on China talks, tariffs to fund income tax cuts. Negotiations with 18 countries, with India, Korea, and Japan advancing fastest.
    • Caroline Leavitt (Spokesperson): China faces tariff burdens, details undisclosed. Auto tariff adjustments to be signed as executive order.
    • Supply chain: Retail inventory management mitigates concerns. Pharma tax credits under review.
    • Amazon controversy: Tariff-driven price hikes reported by Punchbowl News, criticized by White House. Trump–Jeff Bezos call led to retraction. Goldman Sachs’ Eric Sheridan estimates up to 12% operating profit hit ($10B+). Stock -0.17%.
  • Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon: Market stabilization comments boosted sentiment.
  • Federal Reserve: Rate cut odds rise (June: 60.2%, July: 57.8%, October: 42.1%, December: 40.1%). Focus on inflation/financial stability, weekly briefings.

Economic Indicators

  • JOLTS Report (March): 7.192M job openings, third consecutive decline. Nonfarm payrolls expected to add 130K jobs, signaling labor market cooling and rate cut potential.
  • Conference Board Consumer Confidence (April): 86, down 7.9 points from 93.9. Limited market impact due to expectations.
  • Upcoming: Q1 GDP (preliminary), PCE inflation, nonfarm payrolls/unemployment (Friday).

Sectors and Stocks

  • Big Tech:
    • Tesla: +2–2.15% ($292–293), sixth consecutive gain. Tariff exemptions (Model Y/3 85%+ U.S. sourcing), Semi Truck 2025 production (50K units), China sales (+300 units in April), autonomous driving safety (1 crash per 7.5M miles, 10x safer than humans), Ark Invest’s robotaxi outlook (100K units). Robyn Denholm sold $32M, Joe Gebbia bought $1M. RSI at 60, 1.1B shares traded.
    • Meta: +0.85–1%, launched AI Llama app, targeting 1B users.
    • Nvidia: +0.27%, gains on relaxed AI chip export rules.
    • Apple: +0.5%, U.S. iPhone production news.
    • Palantir: +1%.
    • Amazon: Shaky due to tariff concerns, -0.17%.
  • Pharma:
    • Pfizer: +3.65%, cost-cutting focus. CEO Albert Bourla flags $150M tariff costs, investments on hold.
    • Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly: Wegovy discounts, Humacyte partnership, +4.09%.
    • Humacyte: +23% (peaked at +40% intraday).
  • Consumer:
    • Coca-Cola: Resilient to tariffs, $11.22B revenue, +73% EPS. Diversified supply chain, RBC Capital praises fundamentals.
    • Starbucks: Earnings miss (41¢ EPS, $8.76B revenue), North America sales weak, -0.41–1.14%.
    • Netflix: +20% in a month, strong V-shaped recovery.
    • Spotify: 268M→273M subscribers, tax-driven earnings miss, -6%.
  • Autos:
    • GM: Solid earnings but guidance withdrawn, conference call delayed, -0.64%. CEO Mary Barra sees tariff relief benefits.
    • Ford: +1.3%, Lucid: +1.7%, Stellantis: Tariff relief upside.
  • Semiconductors:
    • Intel: 14A process testing, -0.83%.
    • Super Micro Computer: Lowered guidance ($5–6B), -16%.
    • Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, TSMC: Flat to slight gains, export rule relief expected.
  • Payments:
    • Visa: +9% revenue, +10% EPS, strong cross-border volume, +1.17%.
    • PayPal: Post-earnings gains.
  • Banks: Goldman Sachs CEO’s deregulation comments lift sector.
  • Others:
    • UPS: 20K layoffs due to tariffs, Amazon dependency.
    • Electrolux, Kraft Heinz: Adjusted guidance.

Technical Analysis

  • Tesla: Broke 50/200-day moving averages, RSI 60, nearing overbought. $287 resistance cleared, targeting $292–293.
  • S&P 500: Above 5,500, potential for 5,800.
  • BofA Greed Index: 36→38, moving away from extreme fear.

Outlook

  • Tomorrow’s Events: Q1 GDP (preliminary), PCE inflation, earnings from Caterpillar, Microsoft, Meta, Qualcomm, Robinhood.
  • Market: Tariff relief, rate cut expectations, and earnings digestion support upside. Focus on India, Korea, Japan trade talks and supply chain stability.
  • Risks: Tariff pressures on Amazon, UPS; uncertainty in GM guidance.

Note: Trump policies and earnings dominate market momentum. Monitor rate cut signals and tariff developments for volatility.

 

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